To win the White House in 2016, the Republicans will need over 60% of the white vote and about 40% of the non-white vote.
While such a result is mathematically possible, it is extremely unlikely.
What the Republicans will likely be able to do is continue to control the House of Representatives. That might be possible because in 2010, the Republican controlled legislatures in red states gerrymandered Congressional districts to assure that Republicans elected to Congress would outnumber Democrats even though Democrats would win the majority of votes.
Every 10 years, after the National Census, states re-draw the boundaries of Congressional Districts. Democrats must wait until 2020 to level the playing field. And to do that will require that a full court press is launched to gain statehouses and state legislatures in 2018 and 2020.
That task would be much easier for Democrats were they challenging an incumbent Republican president in 2020 and attacking that same president in the 2018 mid-term elections.
Which, of course would occur if we lost the 2016 presidential campaign.
For liberals that might not be the worst idea.
Hillary is the likely nominee and president in 2016. But Hillary falls far short of an ideal president for most liberals.
She is tied to Wall Street, to Big Business, to the military-industrial complex, to Big Agriculture, and Big Pharma. She supports American belligerence, our interventionist foreign policy, and military adventurism.
Were Hillary to be defeated in 2016 by a Republican, it would set the stage for Democratic successes in 2018 in Congress and statehouses, and for a Democratic challenge in 2020 that could be led by a true liberal Democrat.
The Republican base will have continued to erode. Old white men will have died off in droves, Republican voter suppression schemes will have continued to alienate people of color, and evangelical pressure on Republican legislators to demonize the LGBT community will likely not abate,
A Democratic 2020 strategy to re-draw Congressional districts across the country, if successful, could mean the end of the Republican Party as a national party. At best, it would become a regional Congressional party.
The irony is that it might only be a successful strategy if the Democrats lose the White House in 2016.
If Hillary and the Wall Street Democrats capture the White House next year, it is entirely possible that a Republican challenge to her in 2020 will allow the Republicans to retain control of red state legislatures. Which would mean a continuation of Republican gerrymandering of Congressional districts, which would remain in place until 2030.
On substantive matters of domestic economic policy, foreign affairs, corporate welfare, and corporate campaign financing, Republicans and Wall Street Democrats are indistinguishable.
Both rely on corporate bribery and lobbyists, both have family members on the payrolls of the Big Banks, both appoint corporate lobbyists or executives to regulatory agencies which oversee the very agencies they come from, both appoint Wall Street bankers to Cabinet level positions and as presidential economic advisers.
Both pursue interventionist foreign policy, military belligerence, and international trade agreements. Such trade agreements all subvert American sovereignty, circumvent American labor and environmental laws, and cost American workers jobs and lower wages.
It may well be worth enduring a Republican administration in 2016 for the possibility of sweeping statehouses in 2018 and electing a liberal in 2020.
A hard left turn by Hillary is unlikely. Sanders’ candidacy is forcing Hillary to sound more liberal, but her core being is that of a Wall Street puppet.
The political landscape will be a centrist Democratic Party versus a right wing Republican Party, with a political vacuum on the left.
That vacuum could be filled by liberals taking over the Democrats in the 2020 primaries, or by a coalition of minor parties coming together to form a party of the Left.
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