Democrats, it’s time for a political reality check.
Neither Clinton nor Sanders will be able to get a damn thing done. Period.
While the Democrats may retake the Senate, there is no way Democrats will win the House.
It will be politics as usual for the next four years.
Then it gets interesting.
In 2010, the Republicans swept the table in control of state legislatures and governorships. They used that power to gerrymander Congressional districts across the country, giving Republicans control of the House of Representatives even though the votes for Democrats outnumbered the votes for Republicans.
Which is why today the Republicans hold the largest number of House seats they have held since the Second World War.
The 2020 census will trigger reapportionment, and the Democrats can redraw Congressional district boundaries if they are successful in winning control of enough statehouses.
The 2020 presidential race will be the key to winning statehouses across the county, and will afford Democrats the opportunity to wrest control of the House for the next decade. 2020 could effectively end the Republican Party as a national party, reducing it’s influence to a few red states.
Such success for the Democrats will be predicated on a popular presidential candidate, most likely a popular sitting president seeking re-election.
Who would generate the largest turnout of Democratic voters in 2020, a President Clinton or a President Sanders?
That is the real issue. Nothing either is saying or doing means much, as neither will be able to implement anything during his or her first term.
Hillary supporters deride Sanders’ general election prospects. Sanders supporters point out Hillary is controlled by Wall Street.
Almost everyone is ignoring the fact that everything should be focused on 2020.
In that light, a Sanders victory in the 2016 primaries would do more for the Democratic Party than would a Clinton victory.
If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, but loses the presidency to the Republican nominee, the 2020 Democratic field will be wide open, assuring vigorous campaigns to control the direction of the party, and generating a campaign of insurgency against the sitting Republican president.
If Sanders were to win the presidency, the enthusiasm of his political revolution will attract millions of voters into the process who have previously been on the sidelines; students, seniors, the poor, the working poor, etc. Sanders’ election would shift the political center substantially to the left, further reducing the chances of Republican success in statehouse contests in 2018 and 2020.
Contrast that with the election of Hillary Clinton. She would bring nothing to the table except the novelty of being the first woman president. The party base will not grow. Her effectiveness will be limited to whatever executive action she might take, the very same limitation to which Sanders would be confined. But Clinton’s would be a presidency of personality, not of philosophy. As such, all she will bring into the 2020 race is her record of accomplishment in her first term. It takes little insight to guess how poor that record will be.
A credible case can be made that Democrats would fare better against an incumbent Republican in 2020 rather than in defending a Clinton presidency seeking a second term.
Sanders, however, would lead his political revolution into 2020. His targets will be the obstructionist Republicans in the House and the Wall Street Democrats in the Senate.
A Sanders nomination in 2016 will change the course of history, whether or not he becomes president.
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