Republicans were able to win enough statehouses in 2010 that they controlled Congressional reapportionment. They were able to to redraw Congressional district lines in such a way that they sent more Republicans to Congress than did the Democrats, even though the Democrats had more votes for Congress than did the Republicans. This legalized cheating is called “gerrymandering.”
If the Republicans can hold statehouses in 2018 and 2020, they will be able to keep the gerrymandered congressional districts in place after reapportionment in 2020. If the Democrats can re-take enough statehouses, they can undo the outrageous district lines and ensure fair representation in 2020.
The voter turnout for each party in the 2018 and 2020 elections will determine the future makeup of the House of Representatives through 2030.
For the Republicans, defending a Republican incumbent would be disastrous for holding governorships and state legislatures, as the Democrats would turn out in droves to unseat that president in 2020.
For the Democrats, defending a failed Clinton presidency would prove to be no asset in attempting to influence state races. Democrats typically fail to vote in off year elections, as the 2014 returns bear witness. The 2020 elections would be a referendum on Hillary, not a particularly compelling prospect for Democratic voters.
Legislatively, nothing controversial will be accomplished by either a Republican or a Democrat in the White House. The Democrats will control the Senate, the Republicans will continue to own the House.
The single exception to this analysis would be the election of Bernie Sanders. Sanders, of course, would have no more legislative success than would Clinton, but Sanders has demonstrated the ability to attract young voters, labor, the poor, the working poor, students, etc, far more effectively than has Clinton. Were he to be elected, his “political revolution” would continue, and could well culminate in larger than usual mid term election turnout for Democrats in 2018, and in a re-election campaign in 2020.
In which case, Sanders could be the salvation of the Democrats, enthusing his base to such a degree that Democrats take enough statehouses and legislative chambers to wrest control of the House away from the GOP.
And if the House goes Democratic in 2020, Democrats will control the House until 2030, when the next congressional reapportionment occurs. And quite likely for generations to come, as the core constituency of thee Republican Party, older white males, are dying off, and younger people are overwhelmingly more liberal than the boomer generation.
If Sanders is elected president, the odds are that we will have been the last Republican president in history.
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