Why Hillary’s Election Would Help The Republicans

novoteWhat is at stake in 2016 is the future of both parties. Paradoxically, each party would do better in the long run if their nominee were to lose.

Republicans were able to win enough statehouses in 2010 that they controlled Congressional reapportionment. They were able to to redraw Congressional district lines in such a way that they sent more Republicans to Congress than did the Democrats, even though the Democrats had more votes for Congress than did the Republicans. This legalized cheating is called “gerrymandering.”

If the Republicans can hold statehouses in 2018 and 2020, they will be able to keep the gerrymandered congressional districts in place after reapportionment in 2020. If the Democrats can re-take enough statehouses, they can undo the outrageous district lines and ensure fair representation in 2020.

The voter turnout for each party in the 2018 and 2020 elections will determine the future makeup of the House of Representatives through 2030.

For the Republicans, defending a Republican incumbent would be disastrous for holding governorships and state legislatures, as the Democrats would turn out in droves to unseat that president in 2020.

For the Democrats, defending a failed Clinton presidency would prove to be no asset in attempting to influence state races. Democrats typically fail to vote in off year elections, as the 2014 returns bear witness. The 2020 elections would be a referendum on Hillary, not a particularly compelling prospect for Democratic voters.


Legislatively, nothing controversial will be accomplished by either a Republican or a Democrat in the White House. The Democrats will control the Senate, the Republicans will continue to own the House.


The single exception to this analysis would be the election of Bernie Sanders. Sanders, of course, would have no more legislative success than would Clinton, but Sanders has demonstrated the ability to attract young voters, labor, the poor, the working poor, students, etc, far more effectively than has Clinton. Were he to be elected, his “political revolution” would continue, and could well culminate in larger than usual mid term election turnout for Democrats in 2018, and in a re-election campaign in 2020.

In which case, Sanders could be the salvation of the Democrats, enthusing his base to such a degree that Democrats take enough statehouses and legislative chambers to wrest control of the House away from the GOP.

And if the House goes Democratic in 2020, Democrats will control the House until 2030, when the next congressional reapportionment occurs. And quite likely for generations to come, as the core constituency of thee Republican Party, older white males, are dying off, and younger people are overwhelmingly more liberal than the boomer generation.

If Sanders is elected president, the odds are that we will have been the last Republican president in history.

 

 

Author’s Notes:

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2 thoughts on “Why Hillary’s Election Would Help The Republicans

  1. Vote for Bernie in the primary, for WHOEVER the Democratic Nominee is in the general election. We cannot afford to have a Supreme Court dominated by the evil people a GOP President will nominate. Do YOU want 7 people on the Supreme Court like Alito or Scalia? I don’t.

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    • The possibility of a Republican president appointing another Alito, Thomas, or Scalia is the threat Wall Street Democrats use in hopes of keeping Sanders voters on the reservation if Hillary is nominated.

      A Republican president may well appoint another reactionary strict constructionist to the Court. But the overwhelming likelihood is that the Democrats will control the Senate and could reject such an appointment.

      But even if the old boy network in the Senate were to prevail, our analysis of the risk of such an appointee being named to the Court should be weighed against the affect of Hillary and her cadre of establishment hacks controlling the Democratic Party.

      For the first time in history, the party has the possibility of becoming a democratic socialist party. We would be much closer to bringing that about if Sanders were to be nominated. But if Hillary is defeated, the left wing of the party will be poised to assert itself.

      The future of the party is its young people, a demographic that supports Bernie by upwards of 80%. The years of Wall Street control of the party are numbered. We hope to accelerate that timetable.

      Making the Democratic Party a democratic socialist party is my primary political objective. But the primary objective of most Democrats should be the future control of the House of Representatives, which will turn on which party controls the most state legislatures in 2020, when reapportionment of congressional seats occurs after the 2020 Census.

      Republicans currently hold a majority of House seats due to the gerrymandering of district lines by Republican controlled statehouses in 2010. If Republicans again hold a majority of states, the same control; of Congress will be extended until 2030.

      And that is the most likely result of Hillary winning the presidency.

      Hillary’s term will be mired in gridlock as has been Obama’s. The Republicans will continue to hold the House, Democrats will likely control the Senate. Nothing will be accomplished, and an unpopular and weak President Hillary Clinton will be seeking re-election in 2020. Even if she is re-elected, her coattails will be minimal, and she will not be able to affect the election of Democratic candidates for state legislative seats at the bottom of the ticket.

      For animal activists, the question of Hillary or a Republican is a moot one. We need only look at Obama’s record to see that a Wall Street Democrat will do nothing for the animals. Wild horses will continue to be rounded up and sent to slaughter, wolves will remain de-listed, Wildlife Services will continue to act like a wholly owned subsidiary of the cattle industry, Big Ag will continue to run slaughterlines at maximum speed, hunting, mining, and drilling will continue on federal land.

      Were Hillary to suddenly get religion and pledge to stop the roundups or abolish Wildlife Services, animal activists would have an incentive to elect her.

      And I would be leading the effort.

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