If Trump is elected, Democrats will sweep in 2018 and win enough statehouses and legislative chambers to control reapportionment after the 2020 Census. If Hillary wins, Democrats will be swamped in 2018 by an even greater margin than we were in 2014. Republicans will gain in the House, Senate, governorships and state legislatures. They will retain control of enough states to control reapportionment, and will gerrymander the House as they did in 2010
Except for those lobbyists and political hacks who will get patronage positions if Hillary wins, no intelligent, reasoning Democrat, progressive or conservative, should vote for Hillary in November.
She might win, but she will destroy the Democratic party in doing so. Democrats will not control Congress and the White House until at least 2030.
Far from being the ideal candidate for president, Hillary presents the Democratic party with the choice of immediate political gratification or long term political gains. Politicians invested in Hillary are reluctant to admit they might have been wrong. All their political instincts scream that Hillary is a problem, yet they don’t want to risk her wrath if she is the nominee and eventual president.
For progressives there are two compelling reasons to elect Donald Trump. And one of them should be important to all Democrats, including those who support Hillary.
The House of Representatives is in Republican hands. It has been since 2010, when Republicans won enough statehouses and legislative chambers across the county to control reapportionment after the 2010 Census. Republicans gerrymandered congressional districts which means they were able to draw district lines in such a way to concentrate huge Democratic majorities in a few districts while giving Republicans majorities in many more districts. So even with more Democrats in a state, there are more congressional districts controlled by Republicans.
The result? A Republican majority in Congress for ten years! And we cannot undo the damage until 2020.
To undo the damage, Democrats must win enough governorships and state legislative chambers in 2018 and in 2020 to be able to control reapportionment after the 2020 Census
And that will be all but impossible if Hillary is elected president. If elected, Hillary will be the most unpopular newly elected president in US history.
She will face legislative gridlock occasioned by Republican control of the House, even with a likely newly retaken Democratic majority in the Senate.
She will get nothing of consequence accomplished during her first two years.
It is highly probable she will be even more unpopular two years into her term than she was when elected.
Even a highly popular president is at a disadvantage in delivering the vote in midterm elections. In 2014, Barack Obama was enjoying net positive approval numbers, yet Democrats lost seats in the House and Senate, and were swamped in state races across the county.
In 2018, Hillary will do much worse.
A similar result can be anticipated in 2020 with an unpopular Hillary Clinton at the top of a national ticket. A popular president has limited coattails, an unpopular one is toxic in down-ballot races.
Bottom line is that it will be nearly impossible for Democrats to win enough state houses and legislative chambers to control reapportionment in 2020. Republicans will be able to do again what they did in 2010: Gerrymander the House.
They will control the House for another ten years! Democrats will be shut out until 2030.
If Trump is elected president, the exact opposite occurs. Trump will be the political pariah, having accomplished nothing in his first two years, faced with the same gridlock that Hillary would have had to face. Democrats will sweep the 2018 elections, carrying state races across the country.
Democrats in all likelihood will nominate a progressive in 2020, energizing the base as Bernie did this year. They will handily defeat President Trump and carry down-ballot races for governors and state legislators, assuring Democrats of control of reapportionment.
Every elected Democrat in the country should be terrified of running Hillary Clinton in 2016. That they are not speaks to the mass myopia occasioned by herd mentality.
Progressives have the prospect of redefining the Democratic party as an equally compelling reason to work for the defeat of Hillary Clinton.
With Hillary and her Wall Street cronies out of office, the project of rebuilding the party into a progressive one becomes infinitely easier than if we had a President Clinton obstructing Bernie’s revolution and setting the Democratic party’s agenda.
With President Trump the opposition, progressives will be able to nominate Elizabeth Warren, Alan Grayson, Russ Feingold, or another member of the democratic wing of the Democratic party in 2020.
Dear DNC: This should scare the shit out of you! You might want to re-think how those superdelegates will vote at the convention!
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