Republicans Will Control the House until 2030 if Hillary is Elected

House-of-RepresentativesLost in all the hyperbole and rhetoric of the presidential campaign is the most important consideration of them all.

While Democrats demonize Trump and both conservatives and progressives attack Hillary, the consequences of winning the presidency are being ignored by both the media and by political analysts.

Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats want voters to know this profound fact: Whichever party captures the White House in November will lose control of the House of Representatives until 2030.

The party in the White House loses midterm elections. Almost always! There is no reason to believe that 2018 will be any different than was 2014, 2010, or 2006.

For the Democrats, if Hillary is elected, the problem is that they will lose the 2018 midterm elections. Look at 2014, when we had a reasonably popular sitting president. Democrats lost seats in the House and Senate and were swept across the country. Hillary, who would be the least popular president ever elected, would undoubtedly do much worse in 2018 than Barack Obama did in 2014.

But successes at the state level are necessary to control reapportionment after the 2020 Census.

If Trump is elected, the Democrats will win the 2018 midterms.

The Republicans gerrymandered the House after the 2010 Census, and are set to do so again unless Democrats make substantial gains in governorships and legislative chambers in 2018. Thirty two governorships are up in 2018. If Democrats do as poorly in 2018 as they did in 2014, the Republicans will control reapportionment in 2020 and will control the House until 2030.

The best case scenario for the Democrats if Hillary is elected is that we will have divided government through 2024. That even if a Democratic president is elected in 2024, Democrats will not control the presidency and both houses of Congress until 2030 at the earliest.

The best case scenario for the Democrats if Donald Trump is elected is that a progressive Democrat will be elected in 2020, will already have swept the 2018 midterms, will control reapportionment in 2020, and will control the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020.

For Republicans, the best case scenario if Hillary is elected is that they will gerrymander reapportionment again in 2020 as they did in 2010, and will control the House until 2030.

For Republicans, the best case scenario if Trump is elected is that he will be president, although likely for only a single term.

Bernie has to put on his loyal Democrat face if he wants to wage his revolution from within the Democratic party. He cannot admit that the best case scenario would be for him to support Hillary and for her to then lose. His nemesis would be gone, her ability to stack the party leadership would never arise, and Bernie and his progressives would be heirs to the party machinery nationally and across the country. We would sweep the midterms against the Republicans, winning enough statehouses and legislative chambers to assure control of reapportionment in 2020. A true progressive would be nominated and elected in 2020 and the Democrats would control both houses of Congress as well as the presidency.

The alternative, with Hillary being elected, will mean we lose the 2018 midterms, lose control of reapportionment in 2020, the progressive revolution is stymied for 8 years, the Democrats lose control of Congress for another decade, and the likelihood of a Democrat winning in 2024 is virtually non-existent.



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6 thoughts on “Republicans Will Control the House until 2030 if Hillary is Elected

  1. It seems that Bernie Sanders knows this same information you have written all too well. He has started an institute to support and coach citizens to become actively involved at every level of government to change this status quo that routinely happens. This is why it is so important to fund his delegates to make sure they are all there to represent the peoples voice and Bernie’s agenda at the convention. There are many that still need assistance to get there. Please, please fund whatever you can to help him become the nominee. Here is a website to leave your contribution. It is crucial that he be elected this time. Any other candidate will do us in for a long long time. Our planet can’t afford anyone else.

    Do you follow Zoe Weil, the Institute for Humane Education? Her program should be integrated in every school across America and beyond. Teachers should receive inservices regarding her curriculum to begin teaching about issues of real understanding of what makes the world healthy and productive for all. I can’t say enough about her. I also look forward to following your blog. Thank you for some very informative history of our election process.


  2. In your calculation you are forgetting that a lot of young people are going to be voting in the future and the old people are dying off. Most young people are progressive! While there is some merit to look to the past to predict the future, there is also danger if not taking into account those things that are changing! Bernie Sanders is making the best and wisest moves under the circumstances to continue and support the movement he has started. You can support Jill Stein, which I am doing, if you can’t support Bernie’s move. But you seem too intelligent and evolved of a human being to want to support Trump now! It doesn’t make any sense and I deplore you to take a very honest look at your emotional body, which seems to be corrupting your integrity right now.


    • I am supporting Jill Stein in the 37 red and blue states in which Trump and HRC will clearly win. I am supporting Trump in the 13 states that may be competitive. Those battleground states will decide the presidency. And what is at stake are the lives of hundreds of millions of animals. Perhaps billions of animal lives. Hillary supports trade agreements which kill animals, Trump opposes those trade agreements. No issue in this campaign is more important to me than defeating the TPP and reneging on our trade deals with Mexico, Central America, China, Korea, Vietnam, Colombia, Peru, etc.


  3. If Trump is elected this won’t even matter
    He will have the world in more chaos than can be imagined with his saber rattling
    Heck he might just blow it all up
    I like your other thoughts but you are so off on this Trump thing … I know Hillary personally and she is great ! Hardworking and a serious joy to be with .. I don’t know why you hate her so much unless your just a misogynist .. Which I find hard to believe because you love animals so much and the closest thing to enslavement of animals is the way women get treated around the world .. And Trump is chief of the testosterone chumps !
    So quit your ranting about HC we are lucky she is running for prez


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