Republicans Will Control the House until 2030 if Hillary is Elected

Lost in all the hyperbole and rhetoric of the presidential campaign is the most important consideration of them all.

While Democrats demonize Trump and both conservatives and progressives attack Hillary, the consequences of winning the presidency are being ignored by both the media and by political analysts.

Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats want voters to know this profound fact: Whichever party captures the White House in November will lose control of the House of Representatives until 2030.

The party in the White House loses midterm elections. Almost always! There is no reason to believe that 2018 will be any different than was 2014, 2010, or 2006.

For the Democrats, if Hillary is elected, the problem is that they will lose the 2018 midterm elections. Look at 2014, when we had a reasonably popular sitting president. Democrats lost seats in the House and Senate and were swept across the country. Hillary, who would be the least popular president ever elected, would undoubtedly do much worse in 2018 than Barack Obama did in 2014.

But successes at the state level are necessary to control reapportionment after the 2020 Census.

If Trump is elected, the Democrats will win the 2018 midterms.

The Republicans gerrymandered the House after the 2010 Census, and are set to do so again unless Democrats make substantial gains in governorships and legislative chambers in 2018. Thirty two governorships are up in 2018. If Democrats do as poorly in 2018 as they did in 2014, the Republicans will control reapportionment in 2020 and will control the House until 2030.

The best case scenario for the Democrats if Hillary is elected is that we will have divided government through 2024. That even if a Democratic president is elected in 2024, Democrats will not control the presidency and both houses of Congress until 2030 at the earliest.

The best case scenario for the Democrats if Donald Trump is elected is that a progressive Democrat will be elected in 2020, will already have swept the 2018 midterms, will control reapportionment in 2020, and will control the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020.

For Republicans, the best case scenario if Hillary is elected is that they will gerrymander reapportionment again in 2020 as they did in 2010, and will control the House until 2030.

For Republicans, the best case scenario if Trump is elected is that he will be president, although likely for only a single term.

Bernie has to put on his loyal Democrat face if he wants to wage his revolution from within the Democratic party. He cannot admit that the best case scenario would be for him to support Hillary and for her to then lose. His nemesis would be gone, her ability to stack the party leadership would never arise, and Bernie and his progressives would be heirs to the party machinery nationally and across the country. We would sweep the midterms against the Republicans, winning enough statehouses and legislative chambers to assure control of reapportionment in 2020. A true progressive would be nominated and elected in 2020 and the Democrats would control both houses of Congress as well as the presidency.

The alternative, with Hillary being elected, will mean we lose the 2018 midterms, lose control of reapportionment in 2020, the progressive revolution is stymied for 8 years, the Democrats lose control of Congress for another decade, and the likelihood of a Democrat winning in 2024 is virtually non-existent.

 

 

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