A Hillary Win will Breathe Life into the Republican party, a Trump Win will Kill It

doomedIf Donald Trump wins in November, the Republican party is doomed. It will have nothing to do with Trump. It will be because the progressives will take over the Democratic party in the wake of Hillary’s defeat. And the progressives will sweep the midterm elections in 2018.

Just as George Bush led the Republicans to defeat in the 2006 midterms, Trump will see the Republicans lose House and Senate seats, and be swept across the country in state and local elections.

Those state and local elections are critical for the Republicans as their outcomes will determine which party will control Congressional reapportionment after the 2020 Census. Thirty two governorships are up in 2018. If the Democrats capture a majority of them, they will be well on their way to ending Republican control of the House, which they have had since 2010.

A Trump victory in November also will likely mean a re-energized Democratic party, under the leadership of Bernie Sanders. It will mean a Sanders progressive will end up nominated in 2020. The Democrats will win the presidency and the House, and will already have secured the Senate this year.

The Republicans will not see control of the House again. The Democratic nominee in 2020 will serve two terms, the legislative agenda of the progressive Democrats will be supported by Democrats controlling the House and Senate. Sweeping changes in healthcare, foreign policy, trade, and public campaign financing will be possible. Wall Street control of government can be crippled.

The Millennials will be drive the Democratic party. Populists will flock to the political left. Wall Street Democrats will be forced out of influence in the Democratic party. The Republicans will become a regional party without the ability to compete nationally. A new centrist party could emerge serving the interests of Wall Street and the oligarchy.

But just as a Trump victory will ultimately work to the disadvantage of the Republican party, a Hillary victory will breathe life into the Republicans.

If Hillary is in office in 2018, the Republicans will be the ones sweeping the midterm elections, making gains in the House and Senate. But most importantly, holding enough statehouses and legislative chambers to control reapportionment in 2020.

The Republicans will be able to gerrymander the House as they did in 2010. They will control the House until 2030.

Republicans may even capture the presidency in 2020. If Hillary is president, she will surely face a left-wing challenger in the 2020 primaries. She may be sufficiently weakened that a Republican defeats her in November, 2020.

It is hard to imagine a more flawed president against whom to run than would be Hillary in 2020.

As counter-intuitve as it may be, Hillary Clinton would be the salvation of the Republican party.

 

 

Armory Notes:

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