Why Savvy Democrats are Voting for Trump

hrc-and-trumpOn substantive issues of military belligerence and interventionism in the affairs of foreign countries, there is little difference between Hillary and the Republicans.

Same goes for such issues as political campaign financing, lobbyists, Wall Street, breaking up the too big to fail banks, and the appointment of industry hacks to departments, regulatory agencies, and even cabinet positions which oversee their very industries,

On most issues, such as immigration reform, women’s reproductive health, national healthcare, voting rights, expanding rights for the LGBT community, etc, Hillary is the far more attractive candidate to Democrats.

So, what’s the problem?

Apart from the power to appoint justices and judges, and to issue temporary executive orders, neither Hillary nor a Republican president can accomplish anything with a deadlocked Congress.

The Democrats are poised to retake the Senate in 2016. The Republicans are guaranteed to hold the House.

The Republican majority in the House of Representatives exists because Republicans controlled the majority of statehouses and governor’s mansions after the 2010 Census, and were able to reapportion Congressional Districts by the odious practice of gerrymandering (drawing district boundaries to ensure control by Republicans).

Congressional reapportionment occurs every ten years. The districts will not change until after the 2020 Census, which means Republicans will control the House until Hillary (or the Republican) seeks re-election for a second term.

Now imagine the political environment in which a President Hillary would lead the ticket in contests for state legislatures and governorships across the country, states that are must wins for Democrats if we are to control congressional reapportionment.

Even a popular president has limited coattails. But an unpopular one has virtually none.

Four years of a presidency that will be as stymied as has been Obama’s second term is unlikely to be popular in 2020. And defending an unproductive and unpopular incumbent will be a burden on both the president’s re-election and winning statehouses.

Basically, both the Republicans and the Democrats would unquestionably do better in 2020 if they were not defending an incumbent president.

The Democrats will have the additional problem of having to defend Obama’s eight years in addition to Hillary’s four, and to make a credible case why Americans should extend Democratic control of the White House to a 16 year run, the longest run since it was held by FDR and Truman from 1932 to 1952.

If the Republicans keep a majority of chambers and governors, they will be able to draw Congressional districts which will give them control of the house for another decade.

If the Democrats run against a Republican incumbent in 2020, they will likely win the White House as well as ensure enough Democratic statehouse victories to end Republican gerrymandering of the House.

But the most important by-product of Hillary losing the presidential race to the Republican would be the opportunity afforded to Democratic progressives to take over the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party has been controlled by Wall Street since Woodrow Wilson was president. Every Democratic president since has been a Wall Street Democrat.

On economic policy and support of Wall Street and corporate America, Wall Street Democrats are indistinguishable from Republicans. They are free to differ on social policies in which Wall Street has no stake, but they are in lock-step with the capitalists who finance both parties and control the government no matter who is in office.

This year, however, Donald Trump has turned that truism on its head.

Trump capitalized on the very grassroots dissatisfaction that Republican leaders have fomented against liberals and turned it against the political establishment. Trump is now a threat to the oligarchy simply because they cannot control him. He is a loose cannon, as likely to turn on them as on anyone.

If Trump wins, the Democrats will become a progressive party. The Wall Street Democrats will be out. We will nominate a true progressive in 2020. More importantly, we will sweep the midterms in 2018, assuring that Democrats retake enough statehouses and legislative chambers to control reapportionment in 2020. Which would mean a Democratic majority in the House until at least 2030.

If Hillary wins, the opposite occurs. She will be the nominee in 2020, assuring that we do not nominate a progressive until at least 2024. Even more disturbing is that the Republicans will easily sweep the 2018 midterms, retaining enough states to gerrymander the House in 2020 as they did in 2010. Result? Republican control of the House until 2030.

There are few things in life as certain as that the party in the White House loses midterm elections. Savvy Democrats can see the writing on the wall if Hillary is elected. Progressives will be marginalized for her entire tenure, she will stack the Democratic leadership as Obama did. And the Democrats will continue to be a war party owned by Wall Street and Big Oil.

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