Vegans Are Losing Ground to Carnists


On the matter of vegan recruits vs carnist births, I arrive at my conclusion that the latter is gaining on the former through inductive reasoning.

Annual world population growth is about 1% or 80 million new carnists per year.

While veganism is growing in a few industrialized countries like the US, the UK, Germany, Australia, and in Israel, little or no statistical data is available for Asia and the Third World.

We can measure veganism as a percentage of population in Europe, North America and Australia fairly easily, and find ethical vegans comprise less than one percent. If we extrapolate those findings to the entire world population (a very generous assumption) we note that veganism is marginally declining against the world population. Marginally declining is the very best case scenario! It means we are losing under the best circumstances!

As there is a reasonable correlation between veganism and animal activism, we can presume that an absence of animal activism in a nation suggests that there is also a lack of veganism. Making that leap in logic allows us to conclude that a growth in veganism only occurs in nations with the presence of active animal movements.

If we assume that veganism is a statistical anomaly in countries lacking active animal movements, the number of vegans is closer to 0.2% of world population, meaning that each year carnists are adding five times the total world vegan population.



Author’s Notes:

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10 thoughts on “Vegans Are Losing Ground to Carnists

  1. Unfortunately, I have to agree. While some people have condemned animal abuse since before the birth of Christ (Pythagoras, Mahavira, and Buddha, all living in the 6th century BC) it continues.

    In America a law was in 1641 to forbid “Tirranny or Crueltie” toward domestic animals, but it obviously did little good. Attempts to pass laws in earnest began in 1800 in the UK, when members of Parliament wrote bills against abuse of bulls and other farm/draft animals, most of which went down to defeat in their first votes.

    Now, in 21st century America, slaughterhouse deaths have soared into the billions to fill two of humanity’s strongest drives— the quests for profit and pleasure. Big Ag is one of the world’s wealthiest industries for owners and CEOs. Big Ag provides tens of thousands of jobs to fill consumers’ demand for bacon and cheeseburgers, although many vegan alternatives are readily available. McDonald’s and KFC are metastasizing around the globe as developing countries aspire to the European/American lifestyle.

    The animals get no help from Religion, which posits an unbridgeable gulf between the worth of human beings (infinite) and animals (dollars and cents). So animal lives are sacrificed for the greater good of “Man.”

    But come to think of it, would religious condemnation of animal slaughter and abuse create more vegans? Churches have preached for centuries against killing, adultery/fornication, lying, stealing, and coveting other people’s spouses and possessions, along with all the minor infractions the commandments include. How well have we done with that? Basically, we are a flawed species. It is just unfortunate for the rest of creation that we’re the most powerful one.

    Which keeps bringing me back to one of my favorite sayings of Farley Mowat: “I don’t like saying this, but I think we’re a bad species and the sooner we get off the planet the better.”

    Well, Mr. Mowat, I think you’ll get your wish! We’re been damaging the earth and its animal inhabitants with our behavior one way or another since our humble beginnings. Now we’re denying all the harm we’ve done and still do. We’re well on our way to our own eventual doom. But for the animals’ sake it would be better sooner rather than later.


  2. Bottom line ius humans have to stop their uncontrolled breeding. Every person born is a bigger burden on other animals and the earth and environment. And it seems the highest birth rates are in the countries with the worst animal and environmental protection records. I had high hopes for mad cow disease to wipe out millions and spur a movement to veganism, but maybe Zika can do the job. Otherwise the human population will just keep increasing until we’ve destroyed ever other animal, except for the unfortunates on factory farms.

    Liked by 2 people

    • One of the main things mad cow disease did was get millions of cows killed, just as the bird flu resulted in massacres of birds. But, you’re so right. The problem is too many people and still counting.. But it’s a topic that is so taboo in some circles that it’s beyond discussion. More political correctness shutting down needed conversations.


    • There are some super pro-natalists on social media calling themselves “vegan warriors” and they get super insecure and defensive if you say anything anti-natalist. Sad. I feel sorry for those babies born deformed from Zika. Morrissey would call it “a symbol of where mad, mad lovers must pause and draw the line.” The least they could do is take precautions. If you knew your baby could be born deformed would you go ahead and roll the dice? It’s totally irrational and desperate.


  3. While this certainly makes sense from a raw numbers perspective, are you accounting for veganism on a population percentage basis in your calculations, and all of the social ramifications that come with that?

    If we are recruiting one new vegan activist for every 5 carnist births, shouldn’t that mean that the ratio of global veganism is still rising? Specifically, our ratio should keep rising until it reaches the balance point (exrapolating the limit to infinite time) at 1:5, or ~16.7% of the population being vegan? This is much higher than it currently is. And that being said, as our ratio improves our ability to recruit more vegans should also improve, and this doesn’t even account for the ‘social acceptability’ factor of veganism improving as our relative numbers increase. I believe I heard somewhere that the critical mass factor for a strongly held belief by a minority eventually becoming accepted by the majority is only 10%.

    If your projected ratio of 0.2% is correct, if we recruit even one vegan for every *five hundred* carnists born, that is still improving our percentage ‘score’ and hence worldwide social/political presence. It isn’t all about raw, one-to-one numbers when it comes to social influence, or even military conflict if you ask me.


    • If we are at one fifth of one percent of the worldwide population (0.02%) which is a generous assessment of where we stand, and carnists are increasing in number by 80 million per year, we have to recruit vegans at the rate of 1.6 million new vegans per year to just maintain our .02% of the population.

      We are likely doing better than that, especially in Europe and North America. But we are centuries away from becoming a major portion of the populace, even making the most generous assumptions.

      Consider: There are less than two million ethical vegans in the entire world. If we were to add two million more vegans each year it would take us over 500 years to become just ten percent of the population. To become half the world population wouldn’t occur for 2500 years!


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